The long-standing relationship between gold and Bitcoin as parallel safe-haven assets is shifting amid the escalating Iran conflict, according to a new analysis from JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bank’s research highlights a sharp divide in investor behavior since late February, when U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered market volatility across commodities and digital assets.
ETF Flows Mark a Turning Point
JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reported that the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, has seen outflows of roughly 2.7% of its assets under management since February 28. In contrast, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) launched by BlackRock has attracted inflows of around 1.5% during the same period.
This reversal marks the first time in months that Bitcoin investment products have outperformed gold-based instruments in attracting fresh capital. Prior to the outbreak of conflict, institutional and retail investors alike had been rotating toward gold as Bitcoin’s price retreated nearly 40% from its 2025 high near $126,000.
Since hostilities began, however, Bitcoin has rebounded by roughly 7% while gold prices remain flat, and the S&P 500 has dipped about 1%, according to market data cited by Fortune.
Institutional Investors Play Both Sides
Despite the recovery in crypto prices, JPMorgan’s analysis shows that institutional investors remain split. Short interest in Bitcoin ETFs such as IBIT has climbed since the first week of the conflict, signaling that hedge funds continue to position defensively. Meanwhile, short interest in GLD has declined, reflecting a more traditional preference for gold as a safe-haven hedge.
Options data paints a similar picture. The put-to-call open interest ratio on IBIT has stayed above GLD’s since November, indicating stronger demand for downside protection in Bitcoin exposure. Yet JPMorgan also pointed to declining Bitcoin volatility compared to the rising fluctuations seen in gold — a development the bank attributes to deeper liquidity and broader institutional participation in the crypto market.
Risk Perceptions Are Evolving
This shifting dynamic revisits a debate JPMorgan emphasized earlier in 2026. Panigirtzoglou’s February note argued that surging gold volatility had made Bitcoin more appealing on a risk-adjusted basis as the volatility ratio between the two assets dropped to an all-time low of 1.5.
Data compiled by the bank shows that since 2024, cumulative inflows into IBIT remain roughly double those into GLD. Whether this wartime flow pattern holds may depend on U.S. monetary policy in the coming months, especially if elevated oil prices and inflationary pressures keep testing investors’ perception of what constitutes a true safe haven.
